Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".