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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."